NEW DELHI: One of the main factors behind post-monsoon warm streak across country was a prolonged dry spell in most parts of the country, IMD said. With a deficit of nearly 55% in the country, rainfall during last month was the third lowest for Nov since 2001. Even south India, where northeast monsoon is active during this period, logged a shortfall of close to 38%, IMD data shows.
For the upcoming winter season (Dec-Feb), IMD said both day and night conditions are likely to be milder than normal over most of India, with less than usual number of days of extreme cold. Minimum (night) temperatures are likely to be above normal over most parts of the country while maximum (day) temperatures are predicted to be above normal over most parts except for areas in south India.
Conditions in Dec are likely to mirror the warm trend, with night temperatures significantly higher than normal in the south, central-eastern states such as Odisha and Chhattisgarh, as well as Jharkhand and Bihar. The forecast is contrary to expectations of a cold winter in line with the likely formation of La Nina conditions in the Pacific.
“La Nina hasn’t appeared yet and neutral conditions currently prevail in the Pacific. Even if La Nina sets in now, its impact on weather around the world, including India, will only be felt a couple of months later,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, head of IMD, adding, “La Nina is not the only factor that impacts winter conditions in the country. There were no western disturbances that affected north India in Nov, leading to dry conditions in the region. While it is difficult to make forecasts about western disturbances on a monthly scale, it is likely that the trend seen in Nov will continue. If that happens, temperatures will remain on the higher side, at least in north India.”
IMD’s data for Nov shows a clear trend of higher temperatures in recent years, in line with global warming. For instance, the five warmest months of Nov in terms of maximum temperatures in India have all come in the last 25 years.
